2020 will be a year for the ages and certainly not because it's been a good one. As I write this, COVID-19 cases have crossed 25,500,000 across the globe with 6,200,0001 in the USA alone. It's hard to imagine that only six months ago, there were internet memes going around talking about how there were less than 100,000 cases and showing seasonal flu to be a bigger threat. Back in early March, there were less than 4,0001 COVID-related deaths across the entire planet. There were comparisons to Influenza showing that it takes 300,000 to 650,000 lives every year. As of September of this year, we've seen over 850,0001 global deaths with more than 4,0001 new fatalities every day. This has been quite the year. While some may throw up their hands and say "it is what it is", we're staying cautious and continuing to do meetings remotely. It has been hard not seeing people in person and we really hope we can do that before the year is out. Unfortunately, things haven't exactly been trending in the right direction. With Natalie working with pregnant and new mothers, it's very important that we continue to distance ourselves.
The last quarter of 2020 is sure to be interesting at the very least. Kids across North America have gone back to school and we've got one of the biggest elections in US History taking place on November 3rd. Just like in 2016, it appears that both candidates aren't particularly well liked. COVID-19 will add different dynamics to the voting process so expect a lot of arguments between the Democrats and Republicans before the vote actually takes place. I'll be blunt; this is going to be ugly. Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have a long track record of making things up. Fact-checking will be extremely important if you want to make sure you aren't falling for made up stories and exaggerations. At this point, Biden has a large lead and is comfortably ahead in the three States that cost Hilary Clinton the election four years ago, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania2. Biden is also ahead in other important Swing States like Florida and North Carolina. Surprisingly, strong Republican States like Georgia and even Texas are now up for grabs2.
Of course, this is all based on polling and those same polls did not catch what happened in Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania in 2016. I feel that we will see a large popular vote win for Joe Biden but could still see an electoral college victory for Donald Trump. It will be interesting and I am almost certain that there will be unrest in the United States regardless of the outcome.
As with the first three quarters of 2020, there will be a lot to talk about in the last few months of the year. We are here and available if you'd like to discuss how COVID-19 or the upcoming US Election could impact your portfolio. I apologize in advance if my tone will be negative. When you are being realistic and honest, you just can't sugar-coat things. We look forward to hearing from you before this crazy 2020 is over.
Bryce A. Borden
1Worldometer - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
2FiveThirtyEight Polling Data - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/